Research

Research

Peer Reviewed Publications

Willis, Christopher P. “Sexual Violence by the State: The Role of Political Institutions in Sexual Violence Perpetration.” International Studies Quarterly 65 (3): 768-81.


Working Papers

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Abstract: Why do some rebel groups show significant restraint in the use of sexual violence even when they extensively abuse civilians in other ways? We argue that rebels are more likely to engage in such a repertoire when they recruit more heavily with ideological appeals than material incentives. Materially driven recruits are more likely to engage in opportunistic sexual violence and view such behavior as compensation. In contrast, groups that mobilize around ideological appeals tend to have forces that are more obedient and cohesive, increasing their ability and will to restrain sexual violence. However, these dynamics do not as strongly incentivize restraint in other abuses. Using data on the recruitment practices and human rights violations of rebel organizations, we find support for our argument that groups are more likely to engage in sexual violence, but not other forms of civilian victimization, when they rely more on ideological appeals to mobilize recruits.

Abstract: Within the international system, rebel groups may take on the role of de facto governance, and often aspire to the title of de jure state. Are rebels who engage in international relations less likely to perpetrate sexual violence? Prior research has shown that rebel groups seek to present themselves as state-like to achieve legitimacy and international recognition. One component of legitimacy-seeking rebels may be the moderation of violence. Given that sexual violence is a particularly abhorrent form of victimization, we might wonder if rebel groups who seek international legitimacy will be more concerned with moderating the use of sexual violence as they pursue deeper connections in the international system. I argue that rebel groups that engage in international relations (joining international organizations, rebel diplomacy, and establishing economic connections with other states) should be less likely to perpetrate sexual violence. I evaluate these predictions using time-series cross-sectional data on the incidence of sexual violence across rebel groups and data on rebel governance. The results suggest rebel groups who join international organizations are significantly less likely to perpetrate sexual violence, while rebel groups that engage in rebel diplomacy and economic relations with other states are not significantly more or less likely to engage in sexual violence. This analysis suggests a link between rebel pursuit of international connections to their selection of, and moderation of, repertoires of violence, specifically the use of sexual violence.

Abstract: In this article, I examine the impact of gender on the perpetration of sexual violence by state-security forces. The literature on gender and politics generally assumes females have a pacifying effect on conflict processes, with higher gender equality reducing armed conflict and disputes. I contribute to this discussion by examining how female political representation, gendered norms and gendered institutions influences sexual violence by security forces. I argue that as norms and institutions shift toward gender equality or female empowerment, sexual violence by state-security forces should be less widespread. I also argue that as women’s representation increases, especially in higher leadership roles within government, that sexual violence should be less likely. I find that broader female empowerment in society as well as female integration into frontline combat roles both are highly predictive of lower levels of sexual violence. However, contrary to expectation, women holding political office and leadership positions has little to no effect on reduction of sexual violence. This suggests that shifts in norms, and reorienting institutions toward gender equality have larger impacts on sexual violence than gendered political representation.

Abstract: Research has long discussed a dissent-repression nexus examining the interplay between public opposition and the government’s coercive response to it. While prior work has found support for preventive repression, reactive repression, and backlash protest mobilization, there is no clearly defined expectation for how we expect dissent and repression to interrelate. Additionally, while some work has utilized time series methods to answer this question, not all work appropriately examines dynamic relationships. In order to address this, I conduct time series analysis that incorporates past values of repression and dissent in order to predict their effects on future protest mobilization. Examining Sudan, a country that has long lived under the shadow of repression but has recently mobilized protest to the point of full-blown revolution overthrowing Omar al-Bashir’s regime, provides an interesting view into how repression influences further protest mobilization. I find that in Sudan repression in the immediate term has a null effect on protests and generates increases in protests further down the line, matching past findings in the literature concerning the backlash hypothesis.

Abstract: Many studies have demonstrated the importance of actor type for civil war duration. The inclusion of more, and different actors can complicate the bargaining process and make conflict more difficult to resolve. However, past research has largely focused on how the makeup of the rebel opposition influences conflict duration. This analysis breaks up the state side of the equation by focusing on how Pro-Government Militias (PGM) influence conflict duration. The presence of PGMs complicates the commitment problem that rebels feel. The presence of PGMs alone introduces another actor that has personal incentives for conflict, and represents a threat to the rebels. In addition, the interaction between the state and PGMs sends signals to the rebellion about commitment to peace. Where states forego connections with PGMs, either suppressing or incorporating them, the state sends signals of reassurance to the rebels that they are committed to peace. Taking the strategies of state-militia interaction proposed in Staniland (2015), I test whether or not the link between states and PGMs influence civil war duration. Strategies of containment and collusion offer implicit tolerance or explicit support. Thus, where PGM ties are present civil war duration should be longer. Strategies of suppression and incorporation on the other hand offer costly signals of reassurance. The process of pursuing these strategies if costly in implementation, and costly due to the impact termination of PGM has on the capabilities of the state. Undertaking this costly first step signals that the state is trustworthy and committed to peace. This should reduce duration. I test this argument using a survival analysis and competing risks model on data collected from the Pro-Government Militia Database (PGMD). Preliminary results suggest support for PGMs as potential veto players, lengthening conflict time, but less support is found for the signals of reassurance.

Abstract: Why do some civil wars last longer while others are resolved quickly? Previous research on civil war has explored the impact of a variety of factors, including the number and capacity of actors, ethnicity, the spoiler problem, type of conflict termination, and so on, that can influence duration. Less is known about the impact of specific actor-types and their decision to use unique strategies of violence on civil war duration, specifically terrorist organizations and the strategies of terrorism. Rebel actors tend to be treated as homogenous groups in existing literature, and terrorism is often studied as a separate phenomenon from civil war. How do active terrorist groups and the use of terrorism affect civil war duration? This research examines the impact of active terrorist organizations and the use of terrorism by rebels on civil war duration. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo (UCDP/PRIO) Armed Conflict Datasets, I unpack rebel actors into separate groups and test the impact of terrorist organizations and the use of terrorism on civil war duration. The empirical results from a quantitative analysis show that presence of terrorism has a significant impact on civil war duration, making them more likely to persist. To further investigate findings from the quantitative analysis, I conduct a qualitative comparative analysis of the First and Second Chechen Wars in the second part of the research. Evidence suggest that terrorist organizations and the rebel groups utilizing strategies of terrorism prolong the duration of civil war.